“The improvement in the TCI is in line with recent trade performance, and reflects a strong sense that international sales are set to improve in the coming months,” said Peter Hall, EDC’s chief economist. “Trade is definitely in growth mode, but we can’t forget the starting point. Canadian exports took a 20% hit in 2009, six times greater than any annual decline in recent memory. What exporters are saying is that they expect to start climbing out of that chasm.”

EDC’s TCI moved to 77.4 in the fall 2009 from 68.5 in the spring 2009. The survey results followed a similar 7.5-point jump in the spring of 2009. This is the TCI’s largest rebound in the post-9/11 period, and is in keeping with movements in other business outlook surveys over this period. The TCI is now above its historical average level.

The fall survey showed a continued rebound in exporter perceptions about global economic conditions. Nearly half of Canadian exporters now expect global conditions to improve, up dramatically from just 11% one year ago. This is expected to translate into higher near-term international sales.

After tumbling in three of the last four surveys, the share of exporters expecting international sales to increase in the next six months rose 11 percentage points to 48% of respondents. Exporters also sense that their international trade opportunities have improved in the past six months.

Faced with sharply lower international sales over the past year, exporters have capitalized on relatively strong sales inside Canada. A sharply higher share of those surveyed believes domestic economic conditions to improve. Sales into the domestic market are likewise expected to rise. Exporters expecting increased domestic sales in the coming months rose to 46% of those surveyed, up from 30% last fall.

“Canada’s resilient domestic economy has had a marked impact on the improvement in exporter confidence. Exporters who are able to sell within Canada are clearly expecting to enhance overall performance by harnessing domestic strength,” added Hall.